ANKARA: Turkey’s recent threat to launch military strikes against Kurdish militant sites along its border is being seen as a strong warning to the US and other parties involved in the Syrian conflict, according to analysts interviewed by Arab News.
The warning, issued on Wednesday, designating all PKK and YPG sites as “legitimate military targets,” is seen as a precursor to a significant cross-border military operation by Turkey. Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria studies at the ORSAM think tank, suggests that this operation could involve various military assets such as jets, drones, and howitzers, targeting specific locations.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s ambiguous warning to “third parties” to stay away from Turkish targets is also interpreted as a show of strength aimed at the US, Syria, Iran, and Russia. Fidan’s statement raised questions due to its lack of specificity regarding these “third parties.”
The uncertainty surrounding Fidan’s statement has led to intense debate about its intended message to the US and other actors in the Syrian conflict.
Turkish officials have confirmed that the two individuals responsible for the recent bombing in Turkey were members of the PKK who entered the country from Syria, possibly from Tal Rifaat or Manbij.
In response to the attack, Turkish jets conducted cross-border airstrikes against PKK bases in caves, shelters, and depots in northern Iraq. Additionally, Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency used armed drones to strike YPG bases in Hasakah city, northern Syria, destroying critical assets.
Amid escalating tension following these strikes, Iraqi Defense Minister Thabit Mohammed Al-Abbasi is set to visit Ankara to meet with his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler.
Rich Outzen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and Jamestown Foundation, believes that the public statements by Foreign Minister Fidan, coupled with high-level security meetings in Ankara, suggest that a significant operation may be imminent.
Outzen suggests that such an operation would serve as both a response to the recent PKK attack and a warning to the US and its anti-Daesh coalition partners about their proximity to PKK-linked forces.
However, Outzen clarifies that Fidan’s statement does not seem to be a demand for the US to withdraw from northeast Syria but rather concerns the when, where, and why of US-YPG operations. He points out that Turkey views all PKK/YPG locations in northern Syria as potential terror launching points and legitimate targets.
Outzen anticipates that Washington’s response will likely involve discreetly reinforcing its commitment to safeguarding the US presence in the region through diplomatic and defense channels. This would include establishing clear rules of engagement for US forces traveling with SDF/YPG personnel and specifying locations with US presence for force protection.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized Turkey’s strategy to secure its southern border with a security zone at least 30 km deep. He indicated that new steps are being prepared and may be executed without prior notice.
Oytun Orhan of the ORSAM think tank suggests that recent military maneuvers by Turkey and statements from prominent figures like Fidan and Erdogan indicate a potential offensive in the region. The normalization process between Turkey and Syria has stalled due to Syria’s demands for a complete Turkish military withdrawal from northern regions of the country.
Orhan believes that Fidan’s warning to third parties is a message to all factions involved in the Syrian conflict, including the US, Damascus, Russia, and Iran. He suggests that a new offensive along the borders could involve various military assets, but a full ground offensive seems unlikely. Instead, it may serve as a tactical operation to communicate Turkey’s security priorities to all regional actors.
These military developments coincide with the resumption of work on a crude oil pipeline from Iraq, which had been suspended since February due to earthquakes.
Source: Arab News